2011年8月27日 星期六

美國經濟 - 2011/8/26



U.S. economic weakness accelerates: ECR

Aug. 26, 2011, 12:11 p.m. EDT

猶豫了一下, 還是貼上這個連結, ECRI 本週五所公布的 WLI (週領先指標) 掉到 -2.1%, 不妙啊

By Jonathan Burton
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. economy weakened at an accelerated pace, based on the latest data from the Economic Cycle Research Institute. The ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator, reported Friday, showed economic growth at negative 2.1% for the week ended Aug. 19. A week earlier, the growth indicator went negative for the first time since mid-December 2010. U.S. economic strength has been declining since May, according to the WLI. The ECRI has cautioned that moves in the growth indicator must be prolonged and persistent before the readings can be called a trend.

2011年8月26日 星期五

台灣經濟 - 2011/8/26

 景氣連五綠 近黃藍燈 | 經濟要聞 | 財經產業 | 聯合新聞網 

景氣對策信號連五綠 , 已到衰退邊緣 , 8月份很有機會下降為藍燈 ...

經建會昨(26)日發布7月景氣概況,景氣燈號續亮綠燈,已是連五綠,綜合判斷分數降至24分,至綠燈區的下邊,金融指標出現今年以來首顆黃藍燈,投資指標出現首顆藍燈。景氣燈號到了可能轉為黃藍燈的關鍵時刻。

2011年8月22日 星期一

經濟評論 - 2011/8/22


不要執著於「定義」。


最近所聽到最荒謬的話就是「定義」,例如:指數要跌20%才算進入空頭,現在只跌了15%...,經濟成長率連續二季負成長才算衰退,現在還有微弱的成長率0.3%...。


在我看來,像美國這麼大型的股市,只要下跌個8%對投資人來說就已經是一場災難了,不能老是拿20%的空頭定義自我安慰。同樣的,在談到經濟景氣時,更常聽到有人拿定義來麻醉大家。


承認吧,房價沒起色,老百姓債台高築,到處準備裁員,連HP都要退出PC市場,這是那門子的「成長」?定義,常常只是用來自欺欺人,好讓自己不用面對事實。

2011年8月21日 星期日

2011年8月20日 星期六

台灣經濟 - 2011/8/20
7月外銷訂單 史上第三高 | 經濟要聞 | 財經產業 | 聯合新聞網 

以美元計算是史上第三高,以台幣計算就未必。景氣對策燈號中的出口報關餘額已連二月出現衰退的藍燈,就是説明了升值對台灣出口產業已造成實質傷害。可預期8月出口金額會下降,而這項數據中對中國的出口也是連續數月下降,中國景氣也在下滑,台灣下半年挑戰很大

經濟部昨(19)日公布7月外銷訂單金額為375.9億美元,創歷年單月第三高。但8月爆發標準普爾調降美國信評與歐債風暴,加上股市大跌與六輕停工衝擊,「旺季不旺」機率提高,接單可能出現轉折點。
美國經濟 - 2011/8/20


美銀揮刀 可能要砍1萬人 | 國際財經 | 全球觀察 | 聯合新聞網 


最近美國有那間公司宣布要增聘員工的?只聽到到處在裁員,所以不必等經濟數據公布,也可以知道失業率將有增無減。在我看來,這就是衰退。


2011/8/20
華爾街日報19日報導,美銀這波裁員涵蓋各部門,包括旗下投資銀行和交易部門的數百名員工,預計在9月底前完成,部分員工已被告知此事。美銀將公司的大規模整頓稱為「新美銀計畫」(Project New BAC),目前正在討論下一波可能的裁員人數。知情人士透露,美銀打算至少裁撤1萬人,約占美銀員工總數的3.5%。

2011年8月18日 星期四

美國經濟 - 2011/8/18

Philly Fed’s factory index in August freefall

Regional gauge falls to negative 30.7, stunning markets

Aug. 18, 2011, 10:41 a.m. EDT

費城區域的製造業活動於8月份急遽下滑,嚇壞投資人,一堆人從股市往外逃命. 其實這個數據也不需訝異 , 因為8月初就開始大跌 , 而股市大跌會影響消費信心的 , 尤其大家對金融海嘯餘悸猶存. 不過這次不至於像金融海嘯那麼嚴重 , 因為上次是流動性凍結 , 這次各大企業手上現金還不少 ...
By Greg Robb, MarketWatch

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Factory activity in the Philadelphia region weakened sharply in August to the lowest level seen in more than two years, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia said Thursday, adding to fears that the economy has ground to a halt.
The Philly Fed’s business outlook survey fell to negative 30.7 in August from 3.2 in July. This is the lowest reading since March 2009.
Readings below zero indicate contraction in the region’s factories.
The size of the decline in the index stunned analysts — economists had expected a reading of 0.5 in August, according to a survey conducted by MarketWatch — and added fuel to Thursday’s rout in the stock market.
On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA -0.47%  was recently down 457 points or 4% to 10,953, as investors fled stocks in the wake of a handful of poor or lackluster economic reports. Read more on selling in stocks as investors turn to safe havens.
The Philly Fed index may have had the greatest impact on investors.
It’s closely watched by economists and traders for clues it might shed about the national manufacturing sector. It is one of the first indicators released for August.
Another early look at manufacturing in August, the New York Fed’s Empire State manufacturing survey, was also weak. The survey fell to a reading of negative 7.7, the third straight negative monthly reading.
Economists note that the Philly Fed is a sentiment barometer. They also pay close attention to the components of the report because the headline is its own separate question. In August, all of the details were also weak.
The new orders index plunged to negative 26.8 from 0.1. The unfilled orders index worsened to negative 20.9 from negative 16.3.
The shipments index fell to negative 13.9 from 4.3. The employment index dropped to negative 5.2 from 8.9.
In light of the slowdown in activity, inflationary pressures eased. The prices paid index dropped to 12.8 from 25.1, while the prices received index fell to negative 9.0 from 1.1 in July.
In another economic report released Thursday, the Labor Department said first-time jobless claims rose 9,000 to 408,000 in the latest week.
Headline consumer-price inflation rose 0.5% in July, data showed, while core prices, excluding food and energy prices, rose 0.2%.
In addition, sales of existing homes fell 3.5% in July to an eight-month low, according to the National Association of Realtors. 
Greg Robb is a senior reporter for MarketWatch in Washington.
歐債危機日記 - 2011/8/18

Fed:相當擔憂歐洲銀行在美難以取得美元資金                    





才剛說完這次沒有流動性枯竭的問題 , 原來流動性問題發生在歐洲銀行 , Yen 快突破 75 , 歐系銀行又遭遇流動性問題 , 對我們還真是完美風暴


鉅亨網陳律安 綜合外電  2011-08-18  23:32 
《華爾街日報》報導,美國聯準會正密切注意歐洲大型銀行的美國分行,主因為擔憂歐元區債務危機將蔓延至美國銀行系統。
提供銀行短期資金、規模達 2.5 兆美元美國市場基金產業,近幾個月已從歐元區撤退,主要是擔憂歐洲債務危機擴散範圍失去控制。基於上述因素,以及銀行間的借貸乾涸,使得歐元區銀行美元資金曲取得成本上揚2倍,周三時一間銀行甚至被迫向歐洲央行借美元。
轄區內最多歐洲銀行的紐約聯儲表示,正密切觀察銀行是否有足夠基金在美國營運。紐約聯儲官員表示,對歐洲銀行業難以取得資金的情況非常擔憂。