2011年12月31日 星期六

2011/12/31 IMF:私人部门债权50%的减记对希腊可能已经不够

其實希臘債減計50%也是不夠的 , 就希臘總債務而言, 事實上只減計22% , 原因如下 :


IMF:私人部门债权50%的减记对希腊可能已经不够

2011年12月30日 22:05  文 / xiaopi
WSJ消息:

根据两位熟悉情况的官员表示,IMF最近告诉希腊政府,恶化的经济前景意味着这个内外交困的国家即使在私人持有债务减记50%之后可能仍然不足以将债务规模维持在可持续水平。
其中一个官员说:“根据IMF最新的经济预测,50%的减记可能已经不足以使得希腊债务维持在可持续水平。”
一些IMF官员认为“此前的债务可行性分析在新的经济预测条件下已经不再准确。如今要让希腊债务回到可持续水平“需要更多的减记或者欧洲的新增贷款”。
这一评论强调了希腊财政的脆弱和市场猜测希腊即将债务违约。
IMF在上个月发布的报告中曾说如果私人部门投资者可以接受50%的减记,那么希腊债务可以维持在GDP的120%这一可持续水平。当时IMF预计希腊经济今年收缩5.5%,明年收缩3%。但是IMF同时警告“这一结果依赖于经济增长。。,即使宏观情况微小的变动,也会影响到可持续性债务水平。”
IMF当时说:“低增长的情况下可能导致不可持续的结果。”
UBS曾在10月份发布报告解释私人部门债务减记50%的概念:
由于欧洲央行所持债券以及欧元区官方和IMF的贷款都将免于被减记,这意味着所有的负担都加到私人持有者身上。
因此私人部门50%的减记相当于希腊总债务减记22%。

2011/12/31 謝金河:台股的下一個大趨勢在哪裡?


謝金河:台股的下一個大趨勢在哪裡?

【謝金河/專欄】二○一一年即將走入歷史,今年各國股市表現漲跌很不一樣,表現最強勢的是中南美洲的委內瑞拉,成熟市場以美國道瓊表現最出色,S&P500全年無漲跌,已十分不易,NASDAQ100小漲,NASDAQ小跌,美股已是全球最強勁的股市。另外,逆勢上漲的有南非,亞洲有菲律賓、泰國、印尼、而馬來西亞股市小跌,也算是不錯。

台灣的金融股原本是今年選舉行情秘密武器,但是被歐債危機壓垮,加上「四大慘業」逾兆的貸款讓大家深感不安,台灣的銀行股分類指數從三四一.二三跌到二四六.六,跌幅達二七.七三%。今年辦理現增的銀行股,讓所有大股東全部套牢,這是這麼多年來難得一見的景象。


跨國飲食連鎖業者表現出色

全球股市天涯若比鄰,開始出現同類相互調整的走勢,看完了下跌嚴重的類股,回頭來看看今年什麼股票漲最多?我們意外發現各個產業中具競爭力的公司股價表現最出類拔萃,尤其是食品通路表現最突出。先從咖啡連鎖店說起,STARBUCKS(星巴克)從○九年跌到七.○六美元之後,展開漫長的多頭氣勢,星巴克股價從七.○六美元漲到四六.三五美元,今年以來星巴克股價上漲四二%。

跨國飲食連鎖集團,表現最出色的是麥當勞(MCD:UST),麥當勞從四七.九七美元一直漲到一○○.八二美元,今年麥當勞股價從七二.一四美元起漲,漲到一○○美元以上天價,漲幅達三○%,這是難得一見大漲幅。另一家速食巨霸肯德基(YUM)也寫下五九.四八美元歷史天價,YUM今年上漲二○%,也是可圈可點。然後是可口可樂,今年也創下七○.二美元高價,今年的漲幅達五.八四%,至少跟上美國道瓊指數的漲幅。


中國公司治理問題浮現

最近台股量能急凍,成交量屢創新低,我一直在想一個問題,下一個台股的大趨勢在哪裡?左想右想卻一直找不到答案,關鍵在這裡,從一九九○年代台灣與日本出現泡沫化調整後,我們很清楚看到中國的崛起,因此,從九○年代以後,我們常用一個觀念來看市場,也就是說從A到B,直到H,然後到T。A與B是指深滬A、B股,H是香港恆生與國企股,T是台股。過去二十年,我們把投資重點放在大中華市場,很清楚可以看到這個脈動,但是這個大趨勢,走到這裡,我們已隱約看到這個大方向,似乎走到了盡頭。

今年深、滬B股跌幅都超過三○%,上證跌了超過二○%,深證下跌三○%,跌幅都在亞洲居首位。台股今年下跌二六%,也是前段班,香港今年下跌一七%,也跌了很深。過去最耀眼的大中華市場,如今全都了弱雞,最嚴重的是上證跌回十年前的位置,最近一度暴紅的電子書大廠漢王科技從一七五元一口氣跌到一一.一三人民幣,有下市之虞,這家公司董事長劉迎建來台演講口氣很大,如今虧損累累,股價暴跌。最近暴跌股還有一家重慶啤酒,宣稱用啤酒酵素提煉B型肝炎抗體的藥,股價炒到八三.一二人民幣,突然說研發失敗,如今跌到二八.四五人民幣,股價停牌交易。中國企業公司治理的問題開始浮上檯面,這是股價跌跌不休的主因。


跨境投資才能贏

台灣的投資人要成為新一輪的贏家,恐怕必項跨境,也就是說在大的跨國銀行開戶,去買全世界各國,最有競爭力的企業。像是日本股市跌了二十年,但也出現一些如FAST RETAINING(UNIQLO),或工具機的FAUNO那樣的企業,歷久不衰。在南韓,你必須挑選三星電子,或汽車的現代汽車。或是稱霸南韓內需的樂天七星。在美國,你可能要去挑最有競爭力的IT企業,如PC或手機的APPLE,軟體的IBM,網路的GOOGLE,或是一二年可能上市的FACEBOOK;在食品通路裡,王牌就是麥當勞、YUM、星巴克、可口可樂;藍籌績優股則選P&G、嬌生、WALMART。在歐洲,你可能要去挑成衣之王的INDITEX(ZARA),或瑞典的H&M,歐洲食品王牌的聯合利華、達能、雀巢;歐洲汽車有賓士、BMW、福斯,精品則有HEMERS、LV、SWATCH、法國春天等品牌。

這說明了一個殘酷的事實─世界是平的,競爭開始無國界,像是成衣品牌的競爭,未來的世界可能剩下前三大─H&M、ZARA、UNIQLO分享的世界,今年在成衣競爭中第一個被拋出去的是在香港上市的思捷環球,從六四.四五港元一口氣跌到七.五五港元,很多二線成衣廠開始面臨空前壓力。體育用品由NIKE、ADIDAS稱霸也愈來愈明顯。中國擁有十三億人口,未來想打造民族品牌,但今年安踏從一八.七六跌到六.二二港元,李寧從三一.九五到五.九五港元,都是在這一輪競賽中敗下陣來的代表。這證明了中國的土搶打不過歐美的洋砲,這是很殘酷的事實,全世界都必須面對。


選前救市難大漲
現在市場以為是總統大選,兩黨僵持,或者是民進黨可能執政,台股暫時不會漲,大家把希望寄望在選後,其實競爭全球化,台灣有競爭力的企業不多,這才是最大的問題。

選前政府救市,台股勉力支撐在七千點以上,不具大漲潛力,但是關鍵在元月十四日總統大選後只剩下三個交易日,然後要面對農曆年節九天休市,之後歐債問題有義大利一年期債務到期壓力,可以說是關關難過,保持戒慎恐懼的心態,是大選前最好的策略。


2011年12月22日 星期四

2011/12/22 ECB的資產負債表高達3.2兆美元

我想歐元應該是續跌吧 !


目前ECB的資產負債表高達3.2兆美元(不包括昨天的3年期LTRO),超過FED的2.9兆美元,槓桿比率(即總資產/淨資本)達到30倍,相當於雷曼破產前的最高水平。 Open Europe估计目前ECB對南歐國家的曝險已達7050億歐元(ECB直接購買公債+向歐洲銀行注入流動性=雙重曝險),這已經讓ECB的信用處於危險狀態。

2011年12月6日 星期二

2012/1/6 U.S. gains 200,000 jobs in December

美國2011年12月新增20萬就業人數,失業率降到8.5%,近幾個月來再度優於預期。雖然離每月新增25萬就業人數的目標還有距離,但是美國就業在改善中卻是不爭的事實。看來美國是有機會在今年緩緩復甦,及變成長力道不強。剩下來,就看歐債怎麼演變了。


Jan. 6, 2012, 11:31 a.m. EST

U.S. gains 200,000 jobs in December

Unemployment rate falls for fourth month in a row to 8.5%


By Jeffry Bartash, MarketWatch

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The U.S. added 200,000 jobs in December and the unemployment rate fell to the lowest level in nearly three years in a fresh sign the economy is picking up and businesses are more willing to hire.
The increase in jobs last month — the fourth biggest gain of 2011 — suggests the U.S. is entering the new year with renewed vigor. Faster hiring puts more money in the hands of consumers and usually leads to an increase in spending. That’s a big deal since consumer spending accounts for as much as 70% of economic growth.
The unemployment rate edged down to 8.5% from an upwardly revised 8.7% in November, the Labor Department said. Unemployment has fallen fourth straight months.
The U.S. was expected to add 150,000 jobs and the jobless rate was forecast to rise to 8.7% from an initially reported 8.6% in November, according to a MarketWatch survey of economists.
Virtually every major industry added jobs and only the government sector cut employment, though by a smaller amount compared to prior months.
“There is strength across the board and less of a drag from the public sector,” said economist Michael Gapen of Barclays Capital. “It’s a positive report overall.”
Over the past six months, the U.S. has added an average of 142,000 jobs. Yet improved job growth in the second half of 2011 still falls short of what’s necessary to get the U.S. fully back on track.
The U.S. needs to add at least 250,000 jobs a month for several years, economists say, to reduce the jobless rate to pre-recession levels and boost annual growth well above 3% — a level usually associated with healthy recovery.
The economy has expanded sluggishly since the end of the 2007-2009 recession, mainly because of weak hiring. Businesses do not want to add workers unless they are assured of higher demand for their goods and services.
As 2011 drew to a close, though, companies have been hiring at a faster clip as Americans increase spending and consumer confidence rises. The private sector added 212,000 jobs in December, offset by a 12,000 drop in government employment. State and local governments continued a two-year trend of shrinking their bureaucracies to balance their budgets.
“We’ve seen a steady improvement in the jobs market and recruiting activity,” said Scot Melland, chief of Dice Holdings, an online site that helps professional find jobs. “We continue to just chug along.”
The increase in jobs last month, however, was somewhat concentrated in sectors that do a lot of seasonal hiring.
The transportation and warehouse sector, for instance, hired 50,000 workers last month to lead the way, but 42,000 of those positions were for couriers and messengers. The government may have miscalculated its seasonal adjustment for those jobs, economists say.
In addition, the retail industry filled 28,000 positions, while leisure and hospitality businesses such as bars and restaurants created 21,000 jobs.

As a result, few are predicting steady 200,000 payroll increases in the months ahead, especially given high U.S. debt levels, the ongoing European debt crisis and cutbacks in government spending.
“I think we will see modest job growth,” said economist Ryan Sweet of Moody’s Analytics.
Yet other sectors that increased hiring included mining, manufacturing and health care, which are less prone to seasonal swings. Manufacturers added 23,000 jobs to mark the first big gain in four months. The mining industry created 7,000 jobs and health care boosted employment by 23,000.
Payrolls for November and October, meanwhile, were little changed. In November, the government said 100,000 jobs were created instead of a prior figure of 120,000. The number of jobs created in October was revised up to 112,000 from 100,000.
Wages and hours worked, meanwhile, rose slightly last month. Hourly earnings were up 0.2% to $23.24; hours worked rose 0.1 hour to 34.4.
The MarketWatch survey expected a 0.2% increase in average hourly earnings. Hourly wages have risen 2.1% over the past 12 months, though wages gains have been outstripped by inflation.
An alternative measure of unemployment, the so-called U6 rate, fell to 15.2% in December from 15.6% in November. That rate includes part-time workers and those who recently stopped looking for work.
The economy created 1.64 million jobs in 2011, compared to an increase of 940,000 in 2010. The private sector added 1.9 million jobs last year.
Yet the U.S. still has about 5.8 million fewer jobs now compared to the end of 2007. In 2009 alone, the economy lost 5.1 million jobs.
“At this rate of hiring, it’s going to take a long time to recover all the jobs that were lost,” Sweet said. 
Jeffry Bartash is a reporter for MarketWatch in Washington.