這整件事裡面有許多誤解，需要釐清各種因果關係，才會知道未來將如何發展。
先談ECB是否要收購西班牙公債的問題，其實 ECB 已經在作了。大家應該還記得去年12月以及今年2月二輪 LTRO，總共釋出1兆歐元的三年期 1%低利貸款給歐洲銀行。這1兆歐元就是給歐洲銀行去買自家公債套利用的，只是今年歐豬五國發債時間是分散在不同月份，其中以第一季金額最高，之後仍將陸續發債。所以今年整年度發債所需的金額，ECB早就幫這五國「傳便便」了，哪裡還需要 ECB 重新啟動直接收購公債的計畫？其實 LTRO就是ECB透過銀行的手間接買公債，所以我前面說 ECB 已經在買公債了。今年一整年份的歐債都不愁沒有人買，因此凡是發債，都會成功。
所以投資人誤解了，西班牙發債成功，只說明西班牙銀行拿ECB的錢去買公債，跟西班牙重新得到市場信任毫無關係。這是第一個誤解。
第二個誤解，就是投資人誤以為歐豬五國發債高峰是今年最危險的時刻。剛好相反，發債高峰是今年最安全的時刻，不發債才是最危險的時刻。銀行拿到LTRO的1兆歐元會先存在銀行開在 ECB的帳戶裏，等到要買公債時才會提出來，把錢移轉給政府，政府再把錢還給原債主。於是歐洲銀行換到債權與以後的配息，原債主則是拿到錢。透過這個過程，才能把ECB所印的1兆歐元釋放到市場。如果沒有歐債到期，自然就不會有資金釋放到市場裏，這種沒有資金的空窗期，股市就很容易跌，股市一下跌，什麼壞消息都會出籠。所以說，發債高峰反而安全，沒有發債計畫的期間反而危險。整個分析的關鍵，在於資金流向。
由於6月下旬開始，幾個有問題的歐洲國家要密集發債，正好藉此把資金釋放出來，因此未來一個月會是股市以及風險性資產喘口氣的時候，能有多大的反彈我不知道，但至少發生重挫的機會較低。不過鑒於歐債問題並未解決，短暫喘息後，當資金也釋放得差不多了，市場又將開始陷入恐慌。這就是為什麼我在6/15日提到「若無意外，6月中到7月中股市將相對較好，7月下旬再開始惡化。」... 純粹是個人臆測，當作參考就好，請勿當成投資依據喔。
參考閱讀 : 2012/6/15 羅德里克專欄／第2次大蕭條…恐怕不遠了
Europe stocks rise; Spain exceeds auction target
By Sara Sjolin, MarketWatch
LONDON (MarketWatch)—Slightly better-than-expected results for a Spanish debt auction drove a rally for stocks in the country and sent some relief through European markets on Tuesday, though the food sector was dogged by downbeat news from Danone SA.
The Stoxx Europe 600 index ticked 0.6% higher to 245.77. On Monday, the index closed at the highest level since May 22, following a victory for pro-bailout party New Democracy in parliamentary elections in Greece.
The Spanish treasury sold 3.039 billion euros ($3.844 billion) of short-term bills, exceeding its €2 to €3 billion target range, although at sharply higher yields.
The IBEX 35 index XX:IBEX +2.69% rose 1.4% to 6,611.60, lifted partly by the country’s banks. Bankinter SA ES:BKT +2.53% took on 2.3% and BBVA SA ES:BBVA +2.25% BBVA +3.30% was 1.1% higher.
Utility firm Iberdrola SA ES:IBE +4.22% added 3%, as Goldman Sachs lifted the stock to buy from neutral.
“The banks have reacted to what was a better-than-expected auction. We got a relatively high interest rate, but raised the maximum target and that has given the market cheer,” said Predrag Dukic, senior equity sales trader at CM Capital Markets in Madrid.
“There was a lot of worries ahead of the auction, and my reading is that we will certainly not continue to get that relief over the long term,” said Dukic.
More Spain sales on tap
On Thursday, Spain will attempt to sell between €1 billion and €2 billion of three bonds, maturing in 2014, 2015, and 2017.
Dukic also pointed to rumors that the European Central Bank would prop up Spanish government bonds, after yields on 10-year government bonds ES:10YR_ESP -1.73% closed above 7% on Monday.
“This would be a sign that the ECB is now willing to act,” he said. “It would reduce the risk premium on Spanish bonds.”
The yield on 10-year Spanish bonds fell 9 basis points to 7.04%, according to electronic trading platform Tradeweb.
Meanwhile, the deadline for an audit on the capital needs for Spain’s ailing financial sector due on July 31 has been pushed back to September, a source from the Spanish central bank said.
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